It can be tough to know what to believe from Week 1 and what we can dismiss. While we won’t truly know the right answer for a few weeks, we can at least settle on what we think is the best approach. For me that means mostly standing pat on efficiency, and adjusting where there’s a change in usage. In other words, I’m holding firm on guys like D.J. Moore, who saw nine targets in Week 1 but only caught four of them for 54 yards.
My reasoning is that it’s unlikely Moore is a worse player than he was the past two seasons and there’s no reason to believe Teddy Bridgewater is a worse quarterback than Kyle Allen. If Moore had seen five targets, I’d be more concerned that the new offense wasn’t going to feature him. But that’s clearly not the case. With a young receiver who is seemingly in a better situation than last year, I see no path other than to ride it out.
There were seven other receivers who saw at least nine targets in Week 1 and failed to reach 12 PPR points: Diontae Johnson, Quintez Cephus, Odell Beckham, Mike Williams, Allen Robinson, A.J. Green and T.Y. Hilton. While I have varying degrees of comfort with this receivers, I’m mostly standing pat on all of them. They’re all in my top 40 receivers this week besides Cephus, and I’m actually excited about starting Green and Beckham on Thursday night. I’m also more interested in Johnson and Williams than I was before the season.
It’s possible one or two of these receivers will continue to be inefficient and eventually lose targets, but I’m not lowering my preseason expectations after one game. My expectation is that most, if not all of them will be better in Week 2.
Week 2 WR Preview
The following players are not being projected to play Week 2 at this time. Here’s what it means:
Numbers to Know
- 14 — DeAndre Hopkins set a career-high with 14 catches in Week 1. My volume concerns in Arizona look like they were unfounded.
- 37.1% — Jamison Crowder was targeted on 37.1% of Sam Darnold’s throws on Sunday.
- 19 — Calvin Ridley now has 19 touchdown receptions in his first 30 career games. Julio Jones has scored 14 since Ridley joined the Falcons.
- 8.1 — Robby Anderson has averaged 8.1 yards per target for his career. If he’s going to see eight targets regularly, he has league-winning upside.
- 60.5% — Henry Ruggs saw 60.5% of the Raiders total air yards. DK Metcalf was the only other receiver over 60% in Week 1.
- 7.4 — Curtis Samuel’s averaged depth of target was barley half of what it was in 2019. Unfortunately, the Panthers have still not found a level that Samuel is consistently productive on.
- 6 — Cooper Kupp has only seen more than six targets twice in his last nine games.
Matchups that matter
Waiver Wire Targets